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Tsewang Namgail
Would the oases in Ladakh survive the climatic changes? Should the people of Ladakh be concerned about shortage of water
associated with the global warming? These are the questions that have become more relevant today than ever before. Agriculture
and livestock production have been the mainstay of the economy of rural Ladakh since time immemorial. Nevertheless, with the
sustained climatic change in Ladakh as elsewhere on the planet, one wonders if the aforementioned sectors will continue to
support the burgeoning population of Ladakh. Do people need to look for alternative options that are not water dependent?
Will tourists continue to visit Ladakh in the same numbers as we have witnessed in the last couple of years, and will tourism
industry be able to feed the Ladakhi population?
Glaciers, the jewel crowns of the Ladakhi mountains are melting apace under the intense heat of the sun. If they continue
to melt at the current rate, the glacial streams may reduce to trickles in the next couple of decades. The rapid melting of
glaciers will not only lead to water shortage but also to erosion of agricultural fields and riverine pastures all across
Ladakh. It will also jeopardize the multi-million livestock industry. Whom should we blame for all these? Is it the people
of Changthang, Nubra, Sham, Stod or Zangskar? If we understand a phenomenon called global warming, we will quickly realize
that we are all victims of an environmental blunder committed by the industrialized world in the past. Act locally and harm
globally! One wonders if this was an implicit slogan of the developed countries on the environmental front in the last century.
Today global warming (climate change) has become a household name across the planet. What is it after all? It is the rise
in the global average air temperature near the Earth's surface by 0.74 ± 0.18 °C in the last century. If global climate models
were to be believed, this temperature will increase by almost 5°C by the end of this century. Nevertheless, it has become
a fashion now a days to model almost everything, but many are oblivious to the fact that models cannot predict things. What
all they do is test the in-built assumptions, thereby creating different scenarios rather than making forecasts. In any case,
there is no doubt that the climate is changing at a rate faster than the human race ever experienced, and is going to affect
the lives of millions of people around the world.
The climate system is very dynamic, and is influenced by external factors such as solar activity, volcanic emissions,
variations in the earth's orbit, greenhouse gases etc. A flurry of investigations is being carried out to understand the causes
of the recent climatic changes, and there is a common consensus amongst scientists that the increase in the greenhouse gases
in the atmosphere is the primary factor. What is this much-hyped greenhouse effect? Well, the process is not very different
from what happens in the greenhouse in your backyard, although the mechanism is different. To draw an analogy, the plastic
sheet in your greenhouse is the layer of the so-called greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, which allows sunlight to pass through
but keep the earth's heat from escaping.
The level of greenhouse gases rose intermittently in the earth’s history, but has been fairly constant for the
last few thousand years. However, with the increased burning of fossil fuels, their levels have shot up in the last century,
warming up the earth's surface temperature. Melting of ice sheets in Polar Regions and glaciers on the major mountain ranges
such as the Himalaya, Alps and the Andes are being increasingly reported due to such warming. Researchers contend that most
of the Himalayan glaciers will disappear before 2050. The mountain peaks in Africa are also retreating at an alarming rate.
For instance, the snowpacks of Kilimanjaro have melted more than 80 percent since 1912.
Such melting of ice will cause other changes like rise in the sea level. It is estimated that the melt of the glaciers
in the Himalayan region contributes to almost 20% of the rise in the global sea level. Ladakh apparently will not be affected
by such rise in sea level, but those living on the islands and the coastal areas would lose their livelihood options and will
need to migrate to the interior mainland. But there are exceptions, e.g., in Scandinavia, the land is rising at a rate of
about 9 mm per year as a result of the melting of the overlaying ice that had exerted pressure on the land in the geological
past. Similarly, the mountains in Ladakh might also be rising due to the melting of glaciers. This springing back of the earth’s
crust and the orogenic process may work in tandem to increase the height of the Himalayan Mountains, thereby making Ladakh
drier.
The Trans-Himalayan glaciers supply millions of cubic feet of water to Asian rivers such as Ganga, Indus and Brahmaputra.
With an unprecedented retreat of the glaciers, the water levels in these rivers will go down tremendously in the next couple
of decades, affecting millions of people that depend on them for water. Experts have suggested an acute scarcity of water
all across the Himalayan region in this century. People of Ladakh are completely dependent on glacier run-off for irrigation
and drinking water. Nevertheless, the water level in the streams is declining year after year, and if this continues for long,
there would be a major ecological disaster. Skirmishes for water have not been uncommon in the past, and it may increase as
the water in the streams gets reduced to trickles.
Global warming is also jeopardizing the winter sports all over the world, as the snowpacks from the mountains disappear.
Ski resorts around the world are hit hard by global climatic change. Although Ladakh is not a popular destination for winter
sports, activities like the Chadar trek might be affected as the rivers will no longer freeze in winter. The negative impact
of global warming does not stop here; as the world's climate changes substantially, there will be risk of flash-floods in
the mountain regions. For instance, if the banks of the mountain lakes, overfed by rapidly melting glaciers, are burst, people
living downstream will be washed away. We must also recognize the fact that the climatic change will put the historical monuments
and monasteries in Ladakh at greater risk. For instance, heavy rainfall and possible rise in humidity will take a toll on
monuments like the Leh Palace. Thus, it is imperative to take precautionary measures to safeguard their future.
The global warming also will push animals and their habitats higher and higher until they are annihilated. In recent years
scientists have warned of a looming biodiversity extinction crisis that will rival the past five mass extinction crises. Coming
to Ladakh, the increasing water level in the high altitude lakes will submerge critical habitats of endangered birds such
as the Black-necked Crane. Due to the high temperature, many insects will emerge and disappear earlier than usual, thereby
jeopardizing the survival of birds that come to Ladakh in summer to breed.
With these imminent dangers to both human and animal life, we need to make efforts to avoid global warming. There are
concerted efforts by many countries in the world to reduce the emissions of greenhouse gases, although some economic giants
like USA and Australia have been indifferent towards this. These two countries are amongst those that refused to ratify the
Kyoto Protocol under which the developed countries pledged to cut greenhouse gases by 5% of the 1990 level during the period
2008-2012. This protocol also formalized the carbon credit scheme, and set quotas in which all countries are given quotas
on the amount of greenhouse gases they can produce. At any rate, it is true that India and China are becoming the major greenhouse
gas emitters, but the negative impacts that we are experiencing today is the result of burning fossil fuels by the developed
countries in the last century. So the western world has a much greater responsibility to curb global warming before India
and China start taking action.
One solution for the problem of global warming is turning to other clean and environment friendly sources of energy. Some
countries are actively looking for unconventional sources of energy. Sweden, aimed to be the first country in the world to
wean itself off fossil fuels by 2020, is leading the way in Europe. Sweden's dependence on fossil fuel came down to 34% from
77% in the last three decades. Brazil is another country, which is actively opting for clean sources of energy. The country
produces about 16 billion liters of ethanol per year to fuel its growing transport fleet. The downside of producing biofuel,
however, is increase in the prices of crops like wheat and maize as they are increasingly being used to produce bio-ethanol.
In any case, these are some of the most viable solutions to curtail the usage of fossil fuel.
Although the current climatic changes are the result of irresponsible acts of the western world in the past, as alluded
to earlier, we as Indians and Ladakhis need not follow them, and exacerbate the situation. We have the option of turning to
alternative sources of energy. Fortunately, more than 80% of our days in a year are sunny, so we can harness the solar energy
to meet our energy requirements. Ladakh already has set an example in India, but sky should be the limit! Hydel Projects like
the one in Alchi may go a long way in weaning us from fossil fuels. Nevertheless, there is a need to study the impacts of
such projects on the region's fragile ecosystem. Harnessing wind energy, especially in the eastern plains, is another option,
albeit it has its own drawbacks.
People can also help by turning off their electrical appliances when not in use. Many modern electrical appliances consume
lot of energy even when they are in standby mode. So know the features of your gadgets and unplug them when not in use or
buy appliances that consume the least amount of energy in standby mode. Replace all incandescent bulbs with compact fluorescent
bulbs. Buy a laptop if possible, for it consumes much less energy than that consumed by a desktop. This is by no means an
exhaustive list of things we can do, but few simple things we Ladakhis can do to contain the global warming. Let's all do
it before it's too late!
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